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Best stocks to own if you're betting on Romney

Written By Emdua on Kamis, 20 September 2012 | 07.07

If he moves into the White House, Mitt Romney has vowed to overturn President Obama's health care reform laws. While that would introduce a new wave of uncertainty about the future of health care, it would be a sure-fire win for at least one area: medical device companies.

Under Obama's Affordable Care Act, medical device companies, such as Medtronic (MDT, Fortune 500), St. Jude Medical (STJ, Fortune 500) and Stryker (SYK, Fortune 500), would be required to pay a 2.3% excise tax on their U.S. sales, starting Jan. 1.

A Romney win would eliminate that tax, which Wunderlich Securities analyst Greg Simpson said "penalizes companies that are driving most of the innovation in the industry."

Medtronic CEO Bill Hawkins told CNBC earlier this year that the tax could cost his company between $150 million and $200 million annually, and would impact the amount the company could spend on research and development projects, while Stryker interim CEO Curt Hartman predicted the tax would cost his company $130 million a year.

And many analysts say that St. Jude's recent restructuring plan, which includes 300 job cuts and aims to save between $50 million and $60 million, would be used to fund the new tax liability.

NEXT: Defense

20 Sep, 2012


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U.S. stocks under pressure at the open

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks edged lower Thursday, as disappointing reports in Asia and Europe showed further signs of a persistent global slowdown.

Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were all in the red as markets opened.

Investors were reacting to an HSBC report on Chinese manufacturing, which showed that manufacturing in the world's second-largest economy continued to contract in September. That pushed Asian markets down between 1% and 2%.

European markets were also hit with news pointing to a lagging economy, with Markit's regional purchasing managers index falling to a 39-month low. That marks the fastest contraction of new business and services in more than three years. European stocks all dropped in afternoon trading.

Related: Fear & Greed Index

On the domestic front, first-time unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. fell for the week ended Sept. 15, down 3,000 from the previous week to 382,000. Although the Labor Department figure is down 3,000 from the previous week, it's still not low enough to ease worries about continued high unemployment.

Investors will also be looking to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's regional business outlook survey released at 10 a.m. to see if there is further sign of a slowdown following disappointing manufacturing data from the New York Fed out earlier this week.

U.S. stocks ended little-changed Wednesday, as investors wait to see if stimulus measures from central banks across the globe will jumpstart the global economy.

Related: Factory data sends China stocks to nearly 4-year low

Companies: ConAgra Foods (CAG, Fortune 500) shares shot up more than 5% after the food processing company beat expectations by reporting earnings of 44 cents per share.

Shares of the nation's largest car retailer, CarMax (KMX, Fortune 500), were lower after the company reported earnings that fell below estimates.

Rite Aid (RAD, Fortune 500) shares were also higher after the drugstore chain's reported loss of 5 cents per share came in smaller than anticipated.

Shares of investment bank Jefferies (JEF) were down more than 7% despite reporting higher-than-expected earnings before Thursday's open.

Shares of railroad operator Norfolk Southern (NSC, Fortune 500) were down after the company lowered its third-quarter guidance Wednesday. Fellow rail transport firms CSX (CSX, Fortune 500), Union Pacific (UNP, Fortune 500)and Kansas City Southern (KSU) also fell on the news.

Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, Fortune 500) were lower after the retailer missed earnings estimates.

Online real estate site Trulia announced late Wednesday that it had priced its initial public offering at $17 a share. The company will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday under the symbol "TRLA."

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and British pound, but it fell versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for October delivery fell 33 cents to $91.65 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $5.30 to $1,766.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.74% from 1.78% late Wednesday. To top of page

First Published: September 20, 2012: 9:44 AM ET

20 Sep, 2012


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China stocks hit fresh low

Investors were spooked by a report from HSBC that contained more bad news for China.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- World markets dropped Thursday as weak economic data from China unnerved investors and sent the Shanghai Composite Index to its lowest level in almost four years.

Broad declines hit markets in Asia, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong skidding 1.2%, the Nikkei in Tokyo falling 1.6% and the Shanghai Composite dropping 2.1%.

The decline left the Shanghai index at 2,024.8, its lowest level since February, 2009. The Nikkei and Hang Seng remain in positive territory for the year.

European markets were also lower. In early trading, the CAC 40 in France and London's FTSE were down 0.7%, while the DAX in Frankfurt tumbled 0.3%.

Investors were spooked by a report from HSBC that contained more dour news for China. HSBC's initial purchasing manager's index for Chinese manufacturing ticked up slightly to 47.8 in September from 47.6, the bank said Thursday. Any reading below 50 indicates that factory growth is shrinking rather than picking up speed.

Economists at Capital Economics said the data indicated a stabilization in China's economy, but not a recovery.

"Today's survey provides reassurance that conditions in manufacturing are not deteriorating," the economists wrote in a research note. "But we are now approaching the one-year anniversary of this index dropping below 50 and a recovery is still not in sight."

Manufacturing in China is considered a barometer of the global economy because of the country's role as a powerhouse exporter.

China, the world's second-largest economy behind the United States, has been hit particularly hard by the recession in much of Europe, where weak conditions have zapped demand. Many economists have downgraded their growth expectations for China in recent weeks.

Policymakers in Beijing, meanwhile, have taken steps to stimulate the economy, including a new round of infrastructure spending, with $157 billion approved for 55 projects. To top of page

First Published: September 20, 2012: 5:23 AM ET

20 Sep, 2012


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Japanese firms reopen in China

By Kevin Voigt, CNN

September 20, 2012 -- Updated 0600 GMT (1400 HKT)

Chinese demonstrators carry anti-Japan banners and shout slogans on September 16.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Dozens of Japanese factories and stores reopened in China after violent protests
  • Exports to China, Tokyo's largest trading partner, dropped nearly 10% year-on-year in August
  • Japanese automakers Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda and Suzuki, have reopened in China
  • Panasonic has yet to reopen in Qingdao where part of its facility was set ablaze by protesters

Hong Kong (CNN) -- Dozens of Japanese factories and stores reopened Thursday in China after violent protests forced their closure amid fury over Japan's plans to buy disputed islands in the East China Sea.

Chinese plants for electronics makers Canon and Sony, along with Japanese automakers Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda and Suzuki, have reopened in China, company officials told CNN. Nearly 200 7-11 stores in Beijing and Chengdu operated by Seven & I Holdings and convenience stores operated by Lawson Inc. also reopened. Toyota Motor Company wouldn't reveal whether its China operations had reopened, telling CNN that the decision is up to individual plants.

Honda has yet to reopen two plants in Guangzhou province, while Panasonic has yet to reopen operations in Zhuhai, site of an employee strike, and in Qingdao, where part of its facility was set ablaze last weekend by protesters.

Meanwhile, trade data released Thursday shows that Japanese exports dropped 5.8% year-on-year in August, with trade to China dropping nearly 10%. Analysts attributed the fall to a general global slowdown in demand for Japanese goods.

The decline underlines the economic significance of China, Japan's largest trading partner, and highlights the risk a prolonged dispute poses for Tokyo. The figures were compiled before the widespread calls in China for a boycott of Japanese goods.

Earlier this week, ratings agency Fitch warned that the credit ratings of Japanese auto and technology manufacturers could come under pressure "if the clash between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands escalates and is prolonged."

The dispute with China comes as Japan Inc. has been battling to recover from the twin disasters last year of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, as well as floods in Thailand which hurt Japanese electronics and automobile manufacturers that operate in the area. Export-driven companies are also struggling against a stubbornly high yen, which hurts the competitiveness of Japanese companies abroad.

Tensions in the dispute, a perennial source of nationalistic anger on both sides of the East China Sea, rose on September 10 after Japanese government agreed to buy the uninhabited islands from its private Japanese owners. China claims historical ownership of the island chain, while Tokyo maintains it has been in Japanese hands since 1895. The islands — known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyu in China -- were administered by the U.S. occupation force after World War II. But in 1972, Washington returned them to Japan as part of its withdrawal from Okinawa.

The islands sit among popular fishing waters and are also believed to be rich in oil resources. Ownership of the chain would allow exclusive commercial rights in the seas surrounding the islands.

CNN's Junko Ogura contributed to this report

20 Sep, 2012


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CHINA: MORE SLOW GROWTH

Written By Emdua on Rabu, 19 September 2012 | 21.18

A worker at an automobile plant in Beijing, China.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- Manufacturing growth in China continued to slide in September, according to a key initial reading released Thursday.

HSBC's initial purchasing manager's index for Chinese manufacturing ticked up slightly to 47.8 in September from 47.6, the bank said Thursday. Any reading below 50 indicates that factory growth is shrinking rather than picking up speed.

"China's manufacturing growth is still slowing, but the pace of slowdown is stabilizing," Hongbin Qu, an economist at HSBC, said in a statement. "This is adding more pressures to the labor market and has prompted Beijing to step up easing over the past weeks."

Manufacturing in China is considered a barometer of the global economy because of the country's role as a powerhouse exporter.

China, the world's second-largest economy behind the United States, has been hit particularly hard by the recession in much of Europe. The European sovereign debt crisis has prompted steep austerity measures in many countries. Weak conditions have zapped demand in the eurozone, the largest market for Chinese exports.

In addition, the U.S. economy has slowed, further cutting demand for Chinese exports. The slowdown in China also worries investors because China has become a major market for U.S. companies.

Related: World's largest economies

Many economists have downgraded their growth expectations for China in recent weeks.

Swiss banking giant UBS has lowered its forecast for how much China's economy will grow this year to 7.5% from 8%. And Goldman Sachs has issued a slightly less dour outlook for China growth -- dropping it to 7.6% from 8.0%.

Chinese officials have moved in recent months to spur growth. The country's central bank cut rates in June and July -- the first such actions since 2008.

And policymakers have confirmed a new round of infrastructure spending, with $157 billion approved for 55 projects. The projects include 25 new subway lines, as well as highway and waterway investments.

The investment comes at a crucial time, as China is scheduled to undergo a leadership change in coming weeks that will reshape the top ranks of China's government and the ruling Communist Party. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 11:58 PM ET

20 Sep, 2012


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Asia's millionaires top North America's

The number of ultra-wealthy people in the Asia-Pacific region is now larger than in North America.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- For the first time ever, there are now more millionaires in Asia than in North America, driven by growth in China and Japan.

There were 3.37 million high-net-worth individuals in the Asia-Pacific region in 2011, according to a report out Wednesday from Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management. That's an increase of 1.6% from 2010. By comparison, there are 3.35 million high-net-worth individuals in North America.

The population of high-net-worth Asians - defined as having at least $1 million in investable income - also exceeded the number of ultra-wealthy Europeans for a second straight year.

But even as the number of Asian millionaires has increased, the total level of investable wealth in the region actually declined by 1.1%, to $10.7 trillion in 2011. This was due to several factors, including inflation, slowing economic growth and reduced demand for Asian goods and services from the stagnant European economy.

Related: Americans see China as economic threat

North America still holds the world's largest collective pile of investable wealth: $11.4 trillion, which is actually down 2.3% from 2010.

Some 54.1% of high-net-worth individuals in the Asia-Pacific region are in Japan, which is still recovering from last year's catastrophic earthquake-tsunami-nuclear meltdown. The report described the wealthy Japanese as conservative investors, "holding high levels of cash, fixed income and real estate."

The Japanese are trailed by the Chinese, and then the Australians, who boast the second and third largest populations of high net worth individuals in the Asia-Pacific region. Thailand and Indonesia also saw rapid gains in their wealthy populations.

Related: U.S. companies betting big in China

Singapore and Hong Kong are reaping their own benefits from the region's increase in wealth. Thanks to their favorable tax rates, they are becoming what the report calls "offshore wealth centers," where Asian millionaires are funneling their funds.

Having said that, Switzerland still holds its traditional post as offshore capital of the world, according to the report. It currently holds a quarter of the globe's assets under management, even though the country has come under closer scrutiny from international regulators in recent years. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 12:18 PM ET

20 Sep, 2012


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F1's financial future in Asia

[unable to retrieve full-text content]CNN's Ben Wyatt investigates whether Singapore is the financial future of F1.

20 Sep, 2012


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Tourism on pace to set a record in 2012

Tourism is on pace to set a record in 2012, despite the sluggish economy.

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- The economic recovery remains sluggish, but that isn't stopping tourists from visiting the United States.

Tourism is on pace to set a record in 2012, as tourism and related sales increased by 2.1% in the second quarter, after a 4.9% increase in the first quarter, according to a Wednesday report from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Travel and tourism-related activities also increased, on average, more than $1.1 billion a month during the first seven months of 2012, the agency reported separately.

"The travel data released today shows that tourism remains one of the bright spots in our economy, and the travel and tourism industry is on pace to reach record export levels this year," said acting U.S. Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank.

Tourism has been strong for the past several years, especially when compared to other economic benchmarks.

The Obama administration trumpeted the news, crediting the president's directive to speed up the visa process. The State Department reported that 85% of visa applicants were now being interviewed within three weeks of submitting their applications, compared to 57% in July 2011.

Related: 5 best travel deals

But analysts credit a long-term drop in the dollar's value as the main lure for foreign travelers.

"When the dollar's competitive, it makes the spending power of visitors from other countries coming to the United States stretch further," said David Huether, senior vice president of economics and research at the U.S. Travel Association, a trade group.

The travel industry's growth is responsible for 12% of the economy's overall export gains so far in 2012, as opposed to 6% in 2011, Huether said. When foreign tourists buy goods in the United States and bring them back home, it's considered an export.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg told a group of Washington economists that tourism is at record highs in New York, due in part to his efforts to expand tourism offices in 18 countries. In 2011, 10.6 million tourists visited New York City from foreign countries, up from 6.8 million in 2000. Bloomberg said that the tourism increase had created thousands of jobs for the city. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 1:27 PM ET

20 Sep, 2012


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Fund managers: U.S. stock rally is over

The world's top mutual fund managers say the U.S. stock rally is about to come to an end.

More than half, or 58%, of 253 fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch say stocks are the most overvalued investments in the world. That's up from 51% in an August survey.

Many investors and market watchers have been confounded by the U.S. stock market rally of 2012 amid what appears to be slowing global growth. All three major U.S. stock indexes have inked double digit gains in 2012 with the Nasdaq (COMP) jumping 22%.

Yet fund managers aren't all that worried about a slowdown. A net 17% of fund managers expect the global economy to strengthen over the next year, up from 15% in August.

What keeps fund managers up at night is potential inaction by Congress on the issue of the so-called fiscal cliff.

"Investors now view the U.S. fiscal cliff as a greater threat than the eurozone -- and the upcoming election is putting these fears into sharper focus," said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, in a statement.

Related: Why the founder of the word's largest hedge fund isn't worried

As fund managers become less worried about the European sovereign debt crisis, they're allocating more money to European equities, raising the amount invested in European stocks to the highest level since February 2001, according to the survey.

In fact, fund managers have increased their position in European equities by double digits for three consecutive months. That marks the first time they've moved that aggressively into European stocks since the summer of 2009.

European markets have also seen broad gains this year. Germany's DAX (DAX) is up 25% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) is up 11%.  "Any extension of the rally [in European stocks] is likely to be led by sector rotation and buying of unloved, domestically exposed stocks," said John Bilton, Bank of America's European Investment Strategist.

Oil and gas and technology are the most loved European sectors, or where fund managers put the largest percentage of capital. The most hated: financials and real estate.

 

20 Sep, 2012


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U.S. housing recovery blossoms

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The U.S. housing industry -- crucial to any jobs recovery -- showed more signs of strength, according to two reports issued Wednesday.

The Census Bureau said housing starts and permits rose substantially in August. Separately, sales of previously occupied homes climbed 7.8% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Builders started on new homes at an annual rate of 750,000, up 29.1% compared with a year earlier. They applied to build another 803,000 new homes on an annual basis, a 24.5% jump compared with August 2011.

Home builders have become increasingly bullish -- a confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders reached its highest level since June 2006.

Even after recent gains, housing starts lag well behind the peak set in May 2005, when the pace of building hit more than 2 million homes.

Related: Best Places to Live

If sales continue to gain steam, that could help the nation break out of its economic doldrums. Home building provides many good-paying jobs, about three hires for every home built in a year, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

A rebound would create other jobs too: factory jobs at carpet and furniture makers, for example. Truckers get work transporting all those goods.

Related: Buy or rent? 10 major cities

Most housing markets around the nation have reached a good balance between sellers and buyers, according to the Realtors' chief economist, Lawrence Yun. There's a 6.1 month supply of homes on the market at the current pace of sales. That's down from 6.4 months in July and 8.2 months a year earlier. The lower supply provides some support for prices.

The housing market has shown several signs of life over the last few months with sales of existing homes, new home sales and home prices all turning positive.

Historically low mortgage rates have helped propel the market forward. This week, rates appear to be headed for new lows, following last week's announcement from the Federal Reserve that it would begin to purchase tens of billions in mortgage securities each month.

The Fed's move "provided the financial support to the mortgage market and signaled an intention to keep rates low for the foreseeable future," said John Tashjian, who runs a real estate investment fund, Centurian Real Estate Partners.

According to Tashjian, the real benefit of the Fed's action could be to increase lending volume. The banks, knowing that any well underwritten mortgage will find a ready market, should be more willing to approve mortgages.

Related: Best home deals in the Best Places

Prices are on the upswing as well. They have benefited from a change in the mix of homes sold with distressed properties -- repossessed homes and short sales -- accounting for only 22% of total sales, down from 31% last August.

The median home price grew 9.5% year-over-year to $187,400. That marked the sixth consecutive month of price increases, the first time that has happened since May 2006, near the very peak of the housing price boom. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 8:45 AM ET

20 Sep, 2012


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The case for investing in bonds

NEW YORK (Money Magazine) -- I'm 52 and have had 100% of my savings in stocks since I began investing at age 25. Given my high risk tolerance and the fact that I expect that my pension and Social Security to cover a substantial portion of my expenses in retirement, why should I reduce my investment returns by investing in bonds? -- Eric C.

If you've been putting your dough exclusively in stocks for the past 27 years, then you know firsthand how lucrative they can be over the long term. Since 1985, the year you began investing, stocks have gained an annualized 11%.

You no doubt also know how risky stocks can be over shorter periods. You've lived through the Crash of 1987 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 508 points -- nearly 23% -- in a single day. And you've survived both the bear market of 2000-2002, which saw stock prices fall 49%, and the meltdown of 2007-2009, when stock values dropped almost 57% (a setback from which they still haven't fully recovered).

I'm sure I also don't have to tell you that bonds returned far less than stocks over the past 27 years and that their yields are especially low right now, with 10-year Treasury bonds yielding less than 2% and investment grade corporates paying only a half percentage point or so more.

Given your experience with stocks and the state of the bond market these days, I can understand why you equate keeping any of your savings in bonds as nothing more than an invitation to subpar returns.

But I think you need to revise your thinking. Here's why:

You became an investor near the beginning of one of the greatest bull markets in history. The surge in stock prices that began in 1982 and with few interruptions continued through the end of 1999, showered investors with almost unprecedented rewards. It also included some truly phenomenal stretches, like the 10-year span from 1989 through 1998 when stocks gained a compounded 19% a year, almost double equities' long-term annualized return since 1926. So I think it's fair to say that this outsize performance has a lot to do with the way you feel about stocks.

Related: Investing: When to 'take money off the table'

What's more, up to now you've viewed the risks and rewards of stock investing primarily through the lens of a relatively young person. Which means you've been much more likely to shrug off stocks' periodic setbacks. They're not as scary when you have decades to rebound from them.

But looking ahead, conditions may be quite different. While stocks are still likely to beat bonds over very long stretches, many analysts believe stocks won't deliver anywhere near the same size gains they did in the go-go '80s and '90s, nor will they outperform bonds by as large a margin.

That's certainly been true for the past 10 years with stocks gaining 7.3% vs. 6.3% for bonds. Some investment advisers, like PIMCO's William Gross, are even forecasting extremely meager stock returns for the years ahead.

And while you may still think of yourself as quite the risk taker, I think you should allow for at least the possibility that a 50% decline in the value of your savings -- and the retirement income it might produce -- may be much more upsetting as you get closer to the end of your career than it was when you were starting out. I'm a bit older than you, but I've found I'm much more sensitive to stocks' volatility myself.

As you weigh the issue of risk, you may also want to factor into your thinking recent research that suggests that the severity of downdrafts we've seen in stocks in the past may occur more frequently than we previously believed.

At any rate, I recommend that you at least consider scaling back your equity exposure. I'm not talking about a total retreat. Rather, I'm suggesting a stocks-bonds mix that allows for long-term growth, but won't get hammered as much should the market tank during your home stretch to retirement -- say, 70% stocks and 30% bonds. As you age, you would then gradually reduce your stock stake, dialing it back to 50% or so of your holdings by the time you retire and then eventually paring it down to between 20% and 30%.

If you expect that your pension and Social Security will cover most of your basic retirement living expenses, you'll have more leeway in how much you'll have to draw from your stock portfolio. That flexibility could allow you to be more aggressive and increase your stock percentage a bit. But I'd be wary of going higher than, say, 75% to 80% stocks today and 55% to 60% at retirement.

Related: Am I on track to retire at 67?

Many investors are particularly wary of making bonds part of their portfolio these days for fear they could suffer losses if interest rates rise. But the potential setbacks in bonds -- especially those with short- to intermediate-term maturities -- pale in comparison to the hits stocks have taken in the past and could take in the future. So despite any anxiety about interest rates rising, bonds are still a worthwhile way to reduce the overall risk level of a portfolio.

Bottom line: I'm all for maintaining reasonable exposure to stocks in the years leading up to and following retirement. But the key word is reasonable. Obviously, you have to decide what's appropriate for you. But you'll be a lot better off if your decision includes a realistic reassessment of your risk tolerance rather than simply going with what worked over the past 27 years. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 4:59 AM ET

20 Sep, 2012


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Who's better for stocks: Obama or Romney?

FORTUNE -- One of the questions I get asked these days is whether a win by Mitt Romney or by Barack Obama would be better for the stock market. To which the only honest answer is "I have no earthly idea." Any competent and dispassionate market analyst will tell you that the financial and psychological states of the U.S. and world economies are the major factors, and that the President's influence on these matters is far less than most people think it is.

Case in point: George W. Bush. He was a Republican, a free-market guy, right? Stocks, according to the conventional wisdom, should have boomed during his reign. After all, he dropped taxes on investment income to their lowest point in modern history in the name of helping investors and the economy. Well … oops! Rather than being a golden age for stock investors, his tenure was a disaster. The U.S. market lost 25.1% during his two terms, according to statistics assembled for me by Wilshire Associates. Had historical averages held, the market's total return -- capital gains plus reinvested dividends -- would have more than doubled investors' money during the eight years that Bush was in office. Instead, investors ended up with a quarter less than they started with.

MORE: Obama - president ready for a showdown

And guess what? The best first-term presidential market (at least so far) has come during the administration of … Barack Obama, who has been reviled on Wall Street for allegedly crippling corporate America with insults and regulation, and who has pushed through higher taxes on investment income of upper-echelon households. Yet stocks produced a whopping 95.9% total return from Obama's Inauguration through Fortune's mid-September presstime.

Finding Obama at the top isn't what I expected to see when I asked Wilshire to calculate returns by presidential administrations for me. We started with Ronald Reagan because Wilshire didn't begin tracking daily market returns with its Wilshire 5000 index until 1980. That's why Reagan, who took office in 1981, is the first President on our list. (You can find all the numbers in the table to the left.)

If George W. Bush, the investors' supposed friend, produced the worst return of any President starting with Reagan, whose administration showed the best return? No, not Reagan, beloved in some places (and notorious in others) for kicking off our orgy of tax cuts. It was Bill Clinton, who pushed through a hefty tax increase during his first term.

Think about it. Under two Democratic Presidents, stocks have shown the best return, while three Republicans bring up the rear.

Tempting as it is to tweak my more conservative friends with this fact, it would be wrong to attribute the Clinton and Obama returns to their policies and presidencies. Clinton inherited a great economy (and no, I don't attribute it to Reagan's policies as supply-side types do, and neither should you) and left office after the Internet stock bubble burst, but well before it bottomed. Bush inherited a tanking stock market and left amid a financial panic. Does Clinton deserve full credit for everything good during his tenure? Does Bush deserve full blame for everything bad? Yes, if you're an ideologue. No, if you're intellectually honest.

MORE: Mitt Romney's 5-point plan for the economy

Obama took office with stocks at really low levels, which he had nothing to do with. After a sickening two-month drop during which his critics tracked the "Obama market," things stabilized, thanks to coordinated actions by central banks and governments throughout the world. The panic was alleviated, and "Obama market" largely disappeared from public discourse.

About half the gain during Obama's tenure came his first year. By contrast, Reagan had a loss in his first year. Other year-by-year returns have varied all over the lot, as you can see. "There's no pattern here -- it's just random," said Bob Waid, managing director of Wilshire Analytics. "If these were causal relationships, you would see a different pattern."

The bottom line: Go ahead, vote for whichever candidate you want. But don't think that your guy's winning -- or losing -- will determine what happens to the stock market. That's just not how the world works.

This story is from the October 8, 2012 issue of Fortune.

20 Sep, 2012


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Apple's iPhone 5: The reviews

The Joy of Tech

FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL), as usual, chose carefully whom to seed with pre-release review copies of the new iPhone: The biggest newspapers and magazines, the friendliest bloggers and, with pointed exceptions, the most influential tech sites.

Walt Mossberg, The Wall Street Journal: The iPhone Takes to the Big Screen. "The world's most popular smartphone becomes significantly faster, thinner and lighter this week, while gaining a larger, 4-inch screen—all without giving up battery life, comfort in the hand and high-quality construction."

David Pogue, The New York Times: IPhone 5 Scores Well, with a Quibble. "Apple calls its [charging connector] replacement the Lightning connector. It's much sturdier than the old jack, and much smaller — 0.31 inch wide instead of 0.83. And there's no right side up — you can insert it either way. It clicks satisfyingly into place, yet you can remove it easily. It's the very model of a modern major connector. Well, great. But it doesn't fit any existing accessories, docks or chargers. Apple sells an adapter plug for $30 (or $40 with an eight-inch cable "tail"). If you have a few accessories, you could easily pay $150 in adapters for a $200 phone. That's not just a slap in the face to loyal customers — it's a jab in the eye."

Ed Baig, USA Today: Apple iPhone 5 in front of the smartphone pack. "When Apple introduced the iPhone 4S last October, you could sense the initial disappointment. Many people were longing for an iPhone 5. The iPhone 4S that came instead may not have represented a dramatic upgrade, but it was a snappy handset with an excellent camera and a sometimes-obedient virtual digital assistant named Siri. It went on to become the best-selling iPhone to date. Nearly a year later the iPhone 5 is upon us. And what I detect this time is lust."

Peter Nowak, CBCNews: iPhone 5 not terribly innovative, but still a smart package. "Devices running iOS 6 will thus have Apple's new Maps app, which isn't as good as its Google-based predecessor. The new app is functional and includes transit stops, but these are incomplete. While there are plenty of streetcar stops marked in Toronto, for example, some subway stations are inexplicably missing. Real-time traffic data, for Toronto at least, is also almost non-existent. It also doesn't include Google's popular Street View, so you can't swoop down to take a pedestrian-level view of locations... If Apple allows it, Google is likely to release its own map app for iOS 6 and fight it out for supremacy."

Harry McCracken, Time: It's all about refinement. "Apple's mojo remains fully operational. The iPhone 5 features some upgrades which, though not groundbreaking in the least, are welcome, like its slightly-larger screen and zippy 4G LTE broadband. It sports an improved version of what was already the single best camera in phonedom. It makes Siri smarter. In short, it's the most polished version yet of what was already easily the most polished phone on the market."

Rich Jaroslovsky, Bloomberg: IPhone 5 Gets Bigger, Thinner, Faster. "The result is a phone that's compact and feather-weight, yet, thanks to the materials used in its aluminum-and-glass body, conveys a sense of solidity and feels great in the hand. It also comes with newly redesigned headphones called EarPods that are the first ever from Apple that don't either immediately fall out of my ears, hurt or both."

Stuart Miles, Pocket Lint: The best iPhone yet? "It's the same iPhone, but it's completely different. That's the main takeaway point for the iPhone 5's design. It's something you can't really appreciate until you get up close and personal with the new phone, but when you do, wow, you'll really notice that difference."

TechCrunch's MG Siegler: With iPhone 5, Apple Has Chiseled The Smartphone To Near Perfection. "You pick it up and it almost feels fake. That's not to say it feels cheap; because it doesn't — quite the opposite, actually. It just doesn't seem real. Certainly not to someone who has been holding the iPhone 4/4S for the past two years. It feels like someone took one of those devices and hollowed it out."

Jim Dalrymple, The Loop: Review: iPhone 5. "That has been my takeaway from the design of the iPhone 5 — small design changes that make for big user experience improvements. It's important to remember that while the changes on the outside may be small to the naked eye, the changes on the inside are huge. Every major component of the iPhone has been changed in one way or another."

Scott Stein, CNET: Finally, the iPhone we've always wanted. "The good: The iPhone 5 adds everything we wanted in the iPhone 4S: 4G LTE, a longer, larger screen, and a faster A6 processor. Plus, its top-to-bottom redesign is sharp, slim, and feather-light. The bad: Sprint and Verizon models can't use voice and data simultaneously. The smaller connector renders current accessories unusable without an adapter. There's no NFC, and the screen size pales in comparison to jumbo Android models. The bottom line: The iPhone 5 completely rebuilds the iPhone on a framework of new features and design, addressing its major previous shortcomings. It's absolutely the best iPhone to date, and it easily secures its place in the top tier of the smartphone universe."

Luke Peters, T3: iPhone 5 Review: "Because various components have been reduced in size, the headphone socket has been moved to the bottom of the device, which comes with its pros and cons. On the plus side, your phone usually goes in your pocket nose first, which means the headphone cable has a clear run out to your ears. On the downside, the jutting jack interferes with your hand when holding it 'upright'. Not all apps will use the gyroscope to flip the screen 180-degrees, either, so you'll have to get used to that."

Mark Prigg, Mail Online: 'Bright, responsive and it just feels right.' "The iPhone 5 is also able to support superfast 4G networks, but unfortunately we were unable to test this as they have not yet launched in the UK. You'll also need a new, smaller SIM card known as a nanosim to use the phone - but most operators should have these in stock when the handset goes on sale."

Tim Stevens, Engadget: iPhone 5 Review. "Thinner. Lighter. Faster. Simpler. The moment the iPhone 5 was unveiled we knew that it was checking off all the right boxes, folding in all the improvements and refinements people have been demanding over the past year -- yet plenty of folks still went to their respective social networks to type out their bitter disappointment. iPhone upgrade ennui seemed to be sweeping the nation, a sentiment that appeared to quickly dissipate when it came time for people to vote with their wallets."

John Gruber, Daring Fireball: The iPhone 5. "The meta story surrounding the iPhone 5 is the same as that of the iPhone 4S a year ago: a gaping chasm between consumers so excited to buy it that they stay up until (or wake up in) the middle of the night to pre-order it, and on the other side, a collective yawn from the gadget and tech press. That story a year ago was lost amid the tributes to Steve Jobs, who died the day after the 4S was unveiled. If anything, that chasm is growing. The collective yawn from the tech press was louder this year; the enthusiasm from consumers is stronger."

20 Sep, 2012


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FedEx isn't alone feeling China pains

China FORTUNE – FedEx, the world's largest air package shipper, sounded the alarms this week on what many corporate executives have feared: China's slowing growth. The world's second-largest economy helped drive global growth when many other economies, including the U.S. and Europe, were still struggling from the global financial crisis.

FedEx CEO Fred Smith on Tuesday warned economic problems in Europe and the U.S. have slowed trade around the world. And he said the impact on China's economy is far bigger than what most observers have estimated. FedEx is a closely watched economic bellwether, as the volume of its shipments offer a broad glimpse of how economies are doing. Already, the company trimmed the amount of planes carrying shipments into the U.S.

FexEx (FDX) isn't alone. Executives at some of the world's largest corporations have also been down on China, where consumers have shown they're hurting, and it's starting to be felt by manufacturers of everything from luxury raincoats to smartphones.

MORE: Luxury brands leave Argentina in droves

Last week, British luxury-maker Burberry issued an unexpected profit warning, reporting its worst same-store sales figures since the financial crisis. The crimp in sales signaled broader troubles in China, the world's fastest-growing luxury market. Although the company said the problem isn't simply a China slowdown, Burberry chief financial officer Stacey Cartwright said: "Yes, we are seeing a slowdown in Asia, and yes, China is a significant contributor to that."

To be sure, China's economy could soon turn around. In recent months, the government has cut interest rates and announced a series of bold spending packages aimed at reviving construction and government projects.

Burberry has said it continues to be bullish on China for the long-term.

"Can anyone control China?" asked Burberry chief executive Angela Ahrendts on Monday during an interview with The Wall Street Journal after the company unveiled its Spring/Summer 2013 collection at London Fashion Week. Ahrendts pointed to analyst reports that suggest China would continue growing despite recent setbacks.

MORE: A management guru sounds a Chinese alarm

Taking a similar long-term view is Caterpillar (CAT), even though executives at the world's largest maker of earth-moving equipment told Bloomberg last month that it has slowed production at its main Chinese excavator factory in Xuzhou city, Jiangsu province. This included shutting down the factory for two months in July. Caterpillar also cut working hours in China. As demand for construction and mining equipment falls, the company is exporting most production after it wrongly anticipated that sales would pick up.

Chipmaker Marvel Technology Group (MRVL) is also feeling the pain. Last month, the company warned that it may miss expectations for the current quarter at its mobile chips business in China as PC sales slow. The company makes processing chips for phones that run on a 3G technology used in China and had benefited from the boom in smartphone sales. Marvel expects its mobile and wireless end-market sales to fall in the mid-single digits.

19 Sep, 2012


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Stocks pressured by mixed housing data

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks were little changed Wednesday, as investors parsed through mixed housing reports.

Investors have been cautious over the past week or so as they watch central banks around the world do what they can to fuel economic growth. And housing is a big part of the recovery story.

The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq traded on either side of breakeven.

A stronger-than-expected report on existing home sales helped offset worries over a report showing housing starts grew at a slower pace than expected in August, and building permits dipped.

Housing stocks moved higher after the existing home sales report. Shares of home improvement retailers like Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) and Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500), as well as home builders PulteGroup (PHA), Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) gained between 1.5% and 2.6%.

Before the U.S. markets opened, the Bank of Japan said it would expand its asset purchase program by ¥10 trillion to about ¥80 trillion to boost its slowing economy.

The news pushed Asian stocks higher. The Shanghai Composite ended up 0.4%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong and Japan's Nikkei each gained 1.2%.

Central bankers around the world have been stepping up their stimulus plans to help fuel the global economy. Just last week, the Federal Reserve said it would buy $40 billion worth of mortgage backed securities a month. That came after the European Central Bank revealed its new bond-buying program.

All of those moves have pushed up the euro to a five-month high against the U.S. dollar. The yen initially rallied on the back of Japan's central bank announcement. And gold prices, used as a hedge against inflation, soared to a nearly seven-month high on the BoJ announcement, before pulling back after the housing report.

Oil prices traded to the lowest levels in more than a month, falling to $93 a barrel after being close to $100 just a week ago.

Related: Bank of Japan announces new stimulus

European stocks also initially popped on the BoJ news, but ongoing worries about Europe's debt crisis muted the enthusiasm.

Britain's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and the DAX in Germany edged 0.1% higher.

Fear & Greed Index

Companies: General Mills (GIS, Fortune 500)shares rose 2% after the food producer reported quarterly earnings of 66 cents per share, slightly beating expectations.

AutoZone (AZO, Fortune 500) reported better-than-expected earnings but same-store sales fell below forecasts, pushing the company's stock 4% lower.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, Fortune 500) will report after the close.

Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) shares rose 1%, after the company announced Tuesday that it would return to shareholders most of the proceeds from selling a portion of its stake in China's Alibaba.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.77% from 1.81% late Tuesday. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 9:58 AM ET

19 Sep, 2012


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Luxury brands leave Argentina in droves

By Daniel Helft

buenos-aires-luxury-shoppingFORTUNE -- A slew of luxury goods retailers are leaving Argentina in response to import barriers, currency controls and soaring inflation.

American designer Ralph Lauren was the most recent departure when it announced last month that it was closing three of its stores in Buenos Aires, including its flagship in the upscale Recoleta district, as draconian measures on imports have all but left it unable to stock its shelves.

Ermenegildo Zegna, Escada, and Calvin Klein Underwear had already closed or reduced operations sharply in response to the growing challenges to doing business in the country. Local media outlets reported French jewelry boutique Cartier is planning to follow suit next month.

President Cristina Fernández late last year tightened controls on imports to protect a dwindling trade surplus. Her administration also restricted access to foreign currency to prevent growing ranks of Argentines from trading their pesos for U.S. dollars to protect their savings from one of the highest inflation rates in the world.

MORE: 7 best new global cities for startups

Tourism, which has boomed in the past decade, has slowed down as Argentina became more expensive and many Europeans limited travel due to a tougher economic climate at home.

The moves underscore the growing difficulties facing foreign companies in Argentina, where the government has resorted to protectionism to address challenges such as soaring internal prices, a reduced confidence in its currency and an eroding trade surplus.

"It's a complicated scenario," says economist Miguel Kiguel, director of EconViews consultancy and a former Argentine finance secretary. "Companies can't bring the products they need to function normally. On top of that, tourism has dwindled as the country became more expensive."

For the city of Buenos Aires, sometimes referred to as the "Paris of Latin America," losing blue-chip international brands is a blow to the city's international flair.

"These stores are so elegant and glamorous," said shopper Cristina Beltrame, walking down the Alvear Avenue, the most Parisian of Argentine streets in the Recoleta neighborhood, last weekend. "It's sad to see them go."

MORE: 3 strategies to dominate a scary economy

Ralph Lauren said in a statement that the closing was temporary but did not specify if and when it planned to reopen its stores.

Argentina imposed controls last year after Central Bank currency reserves shrank by more than 10% as Argentines lined up in front of exchange houses to buy U.S. dollars. The country, which has been unable to tap international debt markets since its $95 billion debt default in 2001, needs the reserves to pay off debt.

The government has all but banned international companies from remitting profits overseas in a bid to reduce the demand for international currency. Argentines are also prevented from buying foreign currencies, forcing many to ditch their international travel plans ahead of the summer season.

The foreign currency controls and a growing sense of malaise, as the economy slows and inflation continues to erode purchasing power, have cut deeply into the popularity of President Fernandez. Local polling firm Management & Fit said 72% of Argentines currently disapprove of the way the government is managing the economy.

In response to the financial controls, perceived by many as a restriction of their personal freedoms, hundreds of thousands of Argentines took to the streets last week banging pots and pans and chanting against price increases and growing crime, in the biggest challenge to Fernandez presidency in more than four years.

MORE: Mexico's media monopoly vs. the people

While the President tried to play down the importance of the demonstration, local analysts view it as a watershed moment in her presidency.

"The middle class that demonstrated last week is a key social segment in the country's political makeup," says political analyst Rosendo Fraga. "And this protest shows that those voters are now distancing themselves from the government."

Argentina's economy is still on track to expand 2.2% this year, according to the World Bank, down from almost 9% in 2011.

Some companies, such as French apparel company Lacoste and Research in Motion (RIMM), the maker of the Blackberry smartphone, have set up local factories to produce or assemble some of their products in the country.

But for the large majority of international brands, the scale of the Argentine market does not warrant such a move, especially considering that the wages of local workers are the highest in the region.

One of the most controversial measures the government imposed last year was to require that companies importing products compensate with exports of their own, prompting unusual partnerships such as a luxury car makers teaming up with local wine exporters or a luxury brand retailer establishing a partnership with a wool-exporting company.

Carmakers Fiat and Renault this year both had to slow down production due to a shortage of imported parts.

The controls have left little choice for many international companies – a choice the Fernandez administration must have known would likely happen. So far, though, neither the departure of the global brands nor the dissatisfaction of the Argentine people is enough to matter.

19 Sep, 2012


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Yahoo to return $3 billion to holders on Alibaba deal

Yahoo plans to return $3 billion back to shareholders from its Alibaba repurchase deal.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Yahoo says it will return $3 billion to shareholders after selling back about half of its 40% stake in Chinese company Alibaba for $7.1 billion, according to documents filed with the SEC.

Alibaba Group Holding, an online marketplace based in China, repurchased its 523 million shares from Yahoo for $7.1 billion.

That includes a payment of $6.3 billion in cash and $800 million in so-called "preference shares" from Alibaba to buy back its stock, providing a much-needed cash injection for Yahoo.

The company, led by new Chief Executive Officer Marissa Mayer, has suffered through lackluster earnings.

Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) had previously returned $646 million to shareholders through stock repurchases. The company did not disclose whether the additional $3 billion will be returned in the same manner.

Related: 10 most powerful business people in China

Back in 2005, Yahoo had sold the Hong Kong part of its business to Alibaba and also bought a stake in the company.

As part of the repurchase deal, certain limitations on the ability of Yahoo to compete in China will be lifted, and restrictions on Alibaba's ability to operate outside of China will also be lifted, according to the filing late Tuesday.

To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 7:22 AM ET

19 Sep, 2012


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Americans: China is an economic threat

Americans regard China as an economic threat, according to a new survey.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- Americans are concerned over China's growing economic strength, and most want U.S. leaders to be tough with China on trade and economic issues, according to a new survey.

A full 78% of Americans say the large amount of U.S. debt held by China represents a serious problem, while solid majorities cite the outsourcing of jobs and the trade deficit as worrisome issues.

The survey, conducted by the Pew Research Center, also indicates that Americans are much more likely to be concerned by China's growing economic might than even its military prowess.

The U.S. economy dwarfs that of China, which surpassed Japan in recent years to become the second largest in the world. But China is growing much more quickly than the United States. Even in a slowdown, China's economy still registers more than 7% annual growth, compared to 2% or 3% for the U.S.

At the same time, the U.S. trade gap with China widened to a record $280 billion last year, and is on pace to get even bigger this year.

Even though they regard China's economic rise as a threat, Americans ascribe some positive attributes to China's population. A majority of Americans describe the Chinese people as hardworking, competitive and inventive. Most Americans also believe economic growth will result in a more democratic China.

Still, only 26% of Americans say that China can be trusted a great deal or a fair amount.

Related: Meet China's middle class

Relations between the two countries, especially on issues of trade, have been in focus in recent days.

The Obama administration filed a complaint Monday with the World Trade Organization alleging that China has illegally subsidized automotive exports and undercut American suppliers.

Some observers characterized the complaint's timing as politically motivated. But Election Day could bring real changes to the U.S. relationship with China.

Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, has taken a combative stance toward China. The former Massachusetts governor has pledged to label China as a "currency manipulator" and hit the country's exports to the United States with tariffs.

Some observers worry that if Romney follows through with his plans, a trade war could erupt between the two economic mega-powers. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 6:51 AM ET

19 Sep, 2012


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7 best new global cities for startups

Looking for the next Silicon Valley? You're not alone. With growth slowing or stagnant in economies around the world, executives, entrepreneurs, and investors are on the hunt for hotbeds of original thinking and new-business creation, in search of people and startups that might give their own companies and portfolios a competitive edge.

Fortune scoured the globe for cities that share the San Francisco Bay Area's potent combination of creativity and capitalism. We started with data from the Global Innovation Index (co-published by Insead and the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization), which ranks countries based on a number of factors, including educational institutions and digital infrastructure. Crucially, the index also looks at results -- it essentially assigns extra credit to countries whose companies and institutions push their products and ideas out into the world.

We then looked closely at the cities and communities within the top countries that were leading the charge on innovation -- the places that are especially hospitable to companies seeking the mix of talent, curiosity, and risk taking that leads to game-changing new products and services. Northern European countries (some perhaps reaping the benefits of being outside the eurozone) dominated the list. If these cities keep churning out results, soon we won't be asking, "Where's the next Silicon Valley?" Instead the question on everyone's lips may be: "Where's the next Copenhagen?"

NEXT: Zurich

19 Sep, 2012


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Stocks to rise on Japan stimulus

Click on chart for more premarket data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were poised to rally at the open Wednesday after the Bank of Japan announced a monetary boost to address weak economic growth.

The Bank of Japan announced Wednesday that it would expand its asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen in an effort to stimulate its economy as global demand slows.

Asian markets rallied on the news. The Shanghai Composite ended up 0.4%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong and Japan's Nikkei gained 1.2%.

The announcement comes less than a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its latest stimulus plan, and two weeks after the European Central Bank revealed its new bond-buying program.

European stocks were mixed in morning trading. Britain's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 were both slightly above breakeven, while the DAX in Germany edged lower 0.1%.

Related: Bank of Japan announces new stimulus

On the domestic front, the U.S. housing market will be in focus Wednesday with reports due on housing starts, building permits and existing home sales.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. Census Bureau will release data on housing starts and building permits for August. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expect housing starts to have occurred at an annual rate of 770,000, with building permits coming in at an annual rate of 800,000.

After the opening bell, the National Association of Realtors will release data on existing home sales for August, which are expected to have occurred at an annual rate of 4.58 million.

The housing market has showed signs of improvement lately, and the Fed hopes to support it further by driving down long-term interest rates with its asset purchases.

U.S. stocks closed mostly flat Tuesday, following more signs of a global slowdown and renewed concern over Europe's debt crisis.

Fear & Greed Index

Companies: Firms including AutoZone (AZO, Fortune 500) and General Mills (GIS, Fortune 500) are set to release quarterly results before the opening bell Wednesday, while Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, Fortune 500) is up after the close.

Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) shares rose 1% in after-hours trading Tuesday, extending gains made during the trading day. The company announced Tuesday that it would return to shareholders most of the proceeds from selling a portion of its stake in China's Alibaba.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for October delivery rose 27 cents to $95.56 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery gained $6.60 to $1,777.80 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 1.80% from 1.81% late Tuesday. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 5:29 AM ET

19 Sep, 2012


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Bill Gross: Where bad bonds go to die

Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at PIMCO, cut holdings of Treasury bonds to 21% at the end of August. Treasury holdings were at a peak of 35% in May and June.

The Bond King came out swinging against the most recent easing plans out of the Federal Reserve and European Central Banks on Twitter late Monday.

The comments from Bill Gross, founder of investing firm Pimco, come just days after the Fed unveiled its plan for a third round of quantitative easing -- or QE3. The Fed will buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month for as long as the economy warrants it. A week earlier, ECB president Mario Draghi said the central bank is prepared to make "outright monetary transactions," or OMTs, in the secondary bond market to help alleviate strains on troubled European nations. Spain and Italy are expected to benefit from this plan.

Gross isn't just talking (or tweeting as the case may be) tough. He cut the holdings of Treasury bonds to 21% at the end of August in the Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX). That fund is the world's biggest bond fund, with $273 billion in assets. Treasury holdings were at a peak of 35% in May and June.

Related: Bill Gross: Get used to stunted returns

Gross extended his Twitter argument on Tuesday, highlighting his thoughts on inflation, which weigh on bond returns over time.

Though not quite as drastic, Gross' latest position is reminiscent of his bearish outlook on Treasuries last year. And that call didn't exactly turn out so well. In February of 2011, Gross slashed his fund's exposure to U.S. government debt to zero, betting that U.S. Treasury prices would fall yields would spike. That didn't happen, and just six months later, Gross admitted his bet was a "mistake." His fund returned just 4% in 2011.

Gross has gotten Pimco Total Return back on the right path this year, thanks to the fund's 50% position in mortgage-backed securities. In fact, the Pimco Total Return Fund is up more than 8% this year, while the benchmark Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is up less than 4%. As the Fed concentrates its latest purchases on mortgage-backed securities, Gross' fund could gain even more in the months ahead.

Pimco was not immediately available for further comment about Gross' tweets.

Posted in: bill gross, bonds, Fed, federal reserve, inflation, mbs, mortgage backed securities, pimco, QE3, total return fund, treasuries, treasury

19 Sep, 2012


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Bank of Japan announces new stimulus

Written By Emdua on Selasa, 18 September 2012 | 23.16

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa at a press conference in Tokyo.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- The Bank of Japan announced Wednesday that it would expand its asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen in an effort to stimulate its economy as global demand slows.

The announcement comes less than a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its latest stimulus plan, and two weeks after the European Central Bank revealed its new bond-buying program.

Japan's central bank said it would ramp up its current bond buying program from 70 trillion yen to about 80 trillion yen, a difference of $126 billion.

The purchases -- which include T-bills and government bonds -- will be completed by the end of 2013. The vote to ease monetary policy was unanimous, the bank noted. Key interest rates were left unchanged.

Still, the monetary easing provided some comfort to investors. Japan's Nikkei closed up 1.4%, while exchanges in Hong Kong and Shanghai were in positive territory on the day.

The efforts made by central banks to spur growth come amid continued weakness across the globe. China's economy -- the second largest in the world -- has hit a rough patch.

Related: China growth forecasts shrink as economy stumbles

Meanwhile, European policymakers continue to struggle with the continent's debt crisis.

"There remains a high degree of uncertainty about the global economy," Japan's central bankers said Wednesday in a statement.

The Fed's policy, known as quantitative easing and often abbreviated as QE3, entails buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. The end date remains up in the air, as the Fed will re-evaluate the strength of the economy in coming months.

The purchases began Friday and are expected to add up to only $23 billion for the remainder of September. To top of page

First Published: September 19, 2012: 2:07 AM ET

19 Sep, 2012


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Japan Airlines has second largest IPO of the year

A Japan Airlines jetliner taking off from the Haneda International airport in Tokyo.

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- Japan Airlines took another step toward redemption Wednesday as it was re-listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange almost three years after a blockbuster bankruptcy.

The IPO was expected to raise $8.5 billion at the initial offering price of 3,790 yen a share.

But demand was weaker than some observers had expected, and shares failed to move much above the initial offering price despite a relatively conservative valuation.

Still, the IPO is the second largest of the year, trailing only that of Facebook, which raised $16 billion at its initial $38 per share May offering. That breathlessly hyped IPO turned into a huge Wall Street debacle, with lots of confusion -- and lawsuits -- swirling around. Shares of Facebook (FB) were trading under $22 a share Tuesday.

The Japan Airlines offering attracted little of the fanfare associated with the Facebook IPO -- but some analysts had predicted a strong performance from the stock in its first day of trading.

Yet shares of the Tokyo-based air carrier were up only about 1% in early trading on Wednesday.

Even without a big pop in share price, the airline's return to trading is notable.

In 2010, the carrier collapsed under a mountain of debt accumulated by ballooning pensions and unprofitable flights.

After filing for bankruptcy, the airline underwent severe cutbacks. The state-backed Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp. of Japan was forced to provide financing, pensions were slashed and the workforce reduced.

The company has worked feverishly to overhaul itself and improve its balance sheet. The airline instituted severe cost-cutting measures and cites a corporate culture focused on saving as a reason for its more recent success. To top of page

First Published: September 18, 2012: 11:16 PM ET

19 Sep, 2012


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Netflix CEO Reed Hastings joins wealth giveaway

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings and his wife, Patty Quillin, recently signed the Giving Pledge.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Netflix CEO Reed Hastings is one of the latest bigwigs to promise half of his family's wealth to charity through the Giving Pledge, a two-year-old initiative championed by Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates.

Hastings and his wife, Patty Quillin, are among the 11 families that signed the Giving Pledge in September, according to a press release on Tuhesday. The pledge now covers 92 families.

The Giving Pledge doesn't specify how the participants will donate their money, though the press release noted that Hastings and Quillin "are active in educational philanthropy and politics with a specific focus on charter schools." Hastings was the president of the California State Board of Education from 2000 to 2004.

Netflix (NFLX) spokesman Joris Evers wouldn't discuss any of Hastings' specific favorite charities, saying that "we actually keep charitable giving and other activities that are not related to work very separate here at Netflix." He did add that Hastings is "very much into education."

"We are thrilled to join with other fortunate people to pledge a majority of our assets to be invested in others," Hastings and Quillin wrote in a letter posted on the Giving Pledge's website. "We hope through this community that we can learn as we go, and do our best to make a positive difference for many."

Hastings has made a fortune in Silicon Valley, but he's a comparative pauper in the Giving Pledge ranks. The initiative says it is "specifically focused on billionaires" -- a group Hastings appears to be a fair way off from joining. He doesn't appear on Forbes' Billionaires List, and his public stock holdings are in the multi-million range.

Related story: Private equity boss signs Giving Pledge

Hastings controls around 4.4% of Netflix's shares, including stock options, according to the company's most recent annual disclosure. That stake is worth about $144 million as of Monday's closing price.

He's also an active investor in tech startups and venture funds, and owns millions' worth of stock in both Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Facebook (FB). Hastings is on the board of directors for both companies.

Still, Gates and Buffett aren't about to turn away any donors with a mere nine-digit net worth. The Giving Pledge's mission statement says it "borrows from past and present efforts that encourage and recognize givers of all financial means and backgrounds."

The list of tech luminaries who have taken the pledge also includes Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) cofounder Gordon Moore, Facebook (FB) cofounders Dustin Moskovitz and Mark Zuckerberg, Tesla (TSLA) cofounder Elon Musk, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) cofounder Paul Allen, AOL (AOL) founder Steve Case and Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) cofounder Larry Ellison. To top of page

First Published: September 18, 2012: 2:04 PM ET

19 Sep, 2012


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Opinion: The market party is over

Investors have been living it up, sending stocks soaring on hopes that the Federal Reserve will keep the easy money rally going. But without support from central banks, it might be time to turn out the lights. But who will clean up the mess?

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.

The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are doing everything they can to keep the market rally going. But guess what? It's time to channel Doris Day. The party's over.

When you take a step back and look at all the challenges that continue to face stocks, it's astonishing that they have done as well as they have this year.

"Absent accommodative monetary policy, there is no reason to expect the market to be doing this well this year ... especially during the past few weeks," said John Norris, managing director with Oakworth Capital Bank in Birmingham, Ala.

Another earnings warning from shipping titan FedEx (FDX) this morning is not good news. It could be a sign that several companies will have disappointing profits in the third quarter due to the sluggish global economy. According to data from FactSet Research, earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to decrease by 2.6% in the third quarter, from a year earlier.

The good news (for now at least) is that analysts are expecting a profit rebound in the fourth quarter and beyond. Forecasts are for earnings to increase 10% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year ago, and that earnings will be 11% higher in 2013 than in 2012.

What's more, valuations (despite all the major indexes being at multi-year highs) are not completely unreasonable. The S&P 500 is currently trading at 13 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months.

Still, would it qualify as a monumental surprise if these profit projections wind up being too rosy? Analysts are often overly optimistic. And it just seems natural for stocks to take a breather right now when you consider all the macro risks.

Related: When to take money off the table in the markets

There is growing tension in the Middle East -- and the possibility of significantly higher oil prices if violence escalates in the region. The recent dip in the dollar (a nasty side effect of QE3) could drive the price of oil and other commodities even higher, which would add to the strains already faced by many consumers and businesses. Europe's woes are not gone. China's economy is slowing.

And if all that weren't enough, investors should be concerned that partisan politics could trump common sense and plunge the U.S. economy off of the dreaded fiscal cliff of budget cuts and higher taxes. What's there to be excited about other than Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi continuing to spike the proverbial punchbowl with more cheap dollars and euros?

"The excess liquidity sloshing around is giving people a sense of comfort. It's not the economy. It's not earnings," said Norris, who added that investors can only play that game for so long. "People may not be in this market for the long haul."

Related: Fed acted because Congress is lame

When you look at the markets right now, it's clear that some companies -- particularly cash-rich techs like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) -- probably have the fundamentals to support their stock prices.

But is the big rally in large banks like Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) really justified? Should shares of other highly economically sensitive companies like Caterpillar (CAT) and Ford (F) really be surging as much as they have in the past three months without any evidence that a global recovery may soon be upon us?

Politicians like to ask if we're better off now than we were four years ago. Investors should be asking themselves if they think the economy and market is really better off now than five years ago, right before the Great Recession began. It's mystifying that the broader market is back near 2007 peaks and tech stocks are at their highest levels in a dozen years.

Richard Ross, global technical strategist with Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage firm in New York, said he's nervous that investors are ignoring obvious warning bells. Ross notes that Monday's "flash crash" in oil is a worrisome sign. It's still not clear what caused the sell-off. But it clearly underscores just how fragile confidence is in the markets right now.

"The recent dip in oil could be a rude awakening. Any asset can be repriced quickly," Ross said.

Related: Investors get greedy ... too greedy?

That's especially true at at time when investors are so complacent. CNNMoney's own Fear & Greed Index has been firmly entrenched in Extreme Greed territory for the past few weeks. So it may not take much to spook investors. Too much money is heading in the same direction.

Ross said he's most surprised by the lack of any major concerns just yet regarding the elections and what may happen (or not happen) in Congress before the fiscal cliff deadline.

"People should definitely be concerned. It's almost too elementary to state that we are about to enter a period of heightened volatility from a political standpoint," he said. "Something doesn't make sense here."

And when logic takes a vacation, that's usually the time to be the most afraid.

19 Sep, 2012


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China still lead buyer of U.S. securities

Global demand for U.S. securities is still strong, with China remaining the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, according to the Treasury Department's latest report on foreign holdings.

The U.S. government's top international creditor continued to add to its holdings, albeit modestly, according to the July Treasury International Capital report, which measures the flow of funds into and out of U.S. securities, including Treasuries, agency-backed securities, corporate debt and stocks, as well as banking capital flows.

In July, Chinese investors increased their holdings by $2.6 billion to $1.15 trillion.

But China cut its overall purchases of U.S. securities this year, paring back its total holdings by $2.3 billion since January. And over the past 12 months, China's purchases have declined by $165 billion. 

Japan, the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, upped its holdings by $7 billion to $1.12 trillion in July. Unlike China, Japan has added some $59 billion worth of U.S. securities to its holdings since the star to the year. And over the past 12 months, Japanese investors have poured $232 billion into U.S. assets.

Overall, foreign investors bought nearly $74 billion worth of U.S. securities in July, compared with net purchases of just $16.7 billion in June. Private investors bought $59 billion, with public institutions taking in $14.7 billion.

"With choppy financial markets and volatility in Europe, which were both widespread in July, private investors abroad purchased more Treasuries than any other asset class in July," said Wells Fargo economist Tim Quinlan in a note to clients.

Against that worrisome backdrop, all three indexes manged to end July with mild gains. The Dow (INDU) saw a 1% uptick, the S&P 500 (SPX) posted a 1.3% increase and the Nasdaq (COMP) ended the month with a 0.15% rise. And while August was a painfully quiet month, stocks still ended the summer lull with a Bernanke-inspired bounce.

Fast forward to last week's Federal Reserve announcement that it would buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities to help stimulate the economy. The news sparked a big rally on Wall Street as optimism pushed investors to riskier assets, such as stocks.

Related: What exactly is the Fed buying?

As investors made the shift, Treasury prices declined, lifting yields on U.S. government-backed debt. The 10-year yield, which hit a record low of 1.44% in May, is now hovering around 1.8%.

19 Sep, 2012


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